2024 GOP Fears Subzero Temperatures May Affect Caucus Turnout
- The 2024 Republican presidential contenders are concerned about the potential negative impact of extremely cold weather on voter turnout in the upcoming Iowa caucuses. The expected temperatures in Iowa are forecasted to be the coldest in at least five years, dipping to wind chills as low as minus 40 degrees Fahrenheit.
- Campaigns are now adjusting their strategies to deal with the inclement weather. For example, President Trump’s campaign is planning to hire drivers with four-wheel-drive vehicles to transport caucus-goers in key areas, while the campaign for Nikki Haley, backed by the Koch super PAC, is continuing door-knocking efforts until an hour before the caucuses start to remind Iowans to participate.
- Despite the adverse weather conditions, each campaign is expressing confidence that their respective supporters will still turn out to vote. Trump’s team believes the severe weather will impact his rivals more than him, while Haley’s campaign contends that Iowans are used to cold winters and will still come out to vote. Meanwhile, Ron DeSantis’s campaign places emphasis on the robust ground game structure they had established months ago.
2024 GOP Presidential Nominees Fear Iowa’s Extreme Cold May Dampen Voter Turnout
As 2024 Republican presidential contenders brace for the frigid Iowa weather on caucus day, concerns grow regarding the potential negative impact on anticipated turnout. This unprecedented cold caucus is set to be the coldest in Iowa’s history.
An Arctic blast is expected to hit central US this weekend, lowering temperatures to record-breaking levels in Iowa. The entire state, except for its far southeastern portion, is predicted to experience temperatures below zero. Such extreme conditions could present accessibility issues for caucus-goers, with fears of car breakdowns on the rise.
Responding to this, GOP campaigns are scrambling to adapt their ground game strategies to withstand the severe weather. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ supporter, Holly Moeller, expressed concerns about venturing into the extreme cold to vote as she lives with her elderly mother. Though unfamiliar with the exact forecast, she expects the cold to warrant caution.
The extreme weather has already forced candidates to reorganize their schedules. Among them, the Trump campaign had to cancel an event due to travel issues, while entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy had to call off his own events due to the severe conditions, after criticizing other candidates for doing the same.
Trump’s team anticipates a large turnout in Iowa to catapult the former president through early-voting states. However, they acknowledge that the subzero temperatures might impact his lead in Iowa, and are now trying to temper expectations about his lead on the caucus day.
Despite the weather challenges, Trump’s team is confident that their ground game strategy, including hiring drivers with four-wheel drive to transport caucus-goers, will secure the former president’s victory. They believe the weather will more negatively impact his rivals, namely DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, than it will Trump.
Similarly, the Haley campaign disputes that the extreme cold will impact her standing significantly, arguing that Iowans are accustomed to cold winters. Supporters echo this sentiment, asserting that Iowans will turn up despite the weather challenges. Doug Stout, a longtime Republican voter in Iowa, predicts that without snow, turnout won’t be much of a problem.
Meanwhile, DeSantis showed confidence that his committed caucus-goers will show up despite the freeze. His deputy campaign manager, David Polyansky, stated that the campaign’s ground game is designed for the forecasted conditions. He also mentioned their grassroots leaders across the state being prepared to ensure people get out and caucus for DeSantis, regardless of the challenging weather.
Vivek Ramaswamy also sees the inclement weather as a potential advantage, arguing that his supporters are highly enthusiastic and may be more likely to brave the challenging conditions.
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