Expert Predictions & Picks: Florida vs. North Carolina Women’s Basketball

Anticipated Competitive Game: No. 21 Florida State Seminoles vs. No. 20 North Carolina Tar Heels

The upcoming game on Thursday is expected to be a tight competition as the No. 21 Florida State Seminoles (12-4) play against the No. 20 North Carolina Tar Heels (11-4). The game, which will be held at Donald L. Tucker Civic Center, has been predicted by our computer model to be a nail-biter, with Florida State ideally winning with a close score of 72-69. The game is scheduled to start at 6:00 PM ET on January 11.

In their last face-off, the Seminoles triumphed with a score of 78-72 against Clemson.

The Seminoles are coming into this game with the fresh victory of 78-72 against Clemson. The Tar Heels, on the other hand, are fresh off a 61-57 victory against Notre Dame. Key players to watch out for are Makayla Timpson from the Seminoles, who clocked in 22 points, nine rebounds and zero assists in the last game, and Indya Nivar from the Tar Heels, who scored 16 points, made five rebounds and even assisted twice.

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Florida State vs. North Carolina Game Details

• When: Thursday, January 11, 2024 at 6:00 PM ET
• Where: Donald L. Tucker Civic Center, Tallahassee, Florida
• TV Broadcast: ACC Network Extra

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Predicted Game Outcome

• Prediction: Florida State 72, North Carolina 69

Florida State Schedule Analysis

• Their most notable victory this season was against the Florida Gators, a top 50 team (No. 48) according to our computer rankings. The Seminoles registered a 79-75 win on the road on November 17.
• With Quadrant 1 opponents, the Seminoles are 1-3 (.250%), tied for the 30th-most victories.
• Against Quadrant 2 opponents, Florida State has a record of 3-1 (.750%), which is tied for the ninth-most victories.

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Florida State’s Best Wins (2023-24)

• 79-75 victory over Florida (No. 48) on the road on November 17
• 92-91 win at home over Tennessee (No. 50) on November 9
• 95-80 win at home over Georgia Tech (No. 57) on December 29
• 78-72 win on the road over Clemson (No. 90) on January 7
• 76-49 win at home over Kent State (No. 115) on December 3

North Carolina Schedule Analysis

• The Tar Heels’ standout victory this season was a 61-57 win against No. 18 Notre Dame Fighting Irish on January 7.
• North Carolina is tied for the 30th-most Quadrant 1 wins in the nation (one).
• They also tie for the ninth-most Quadrant 2 wins in the nation (three).
• Against Quadrant 3 opponents (based on the RPI), the Seminoles have a perfect record of 3-0 (1.000%) — tied for the 58th-most wins.

North Carolina’s Best Wins (2023-24)

• 61-57 victory over Notre Dame (No. 18/AP Poll) on the road on January 7
• 74-70 win at home over Davidson (No. 51) on November 12
• 61-52 win over Oklahoma (No. 53) on December 19
• 75-51 win at home over Syracuse (No. 55) on January 4
• 82-76 victory over Clemson (No. 90) at home on December 31

Top Players: Florida State

• Timpson: 13.4 PTS, 9.5 REB, 1.6 STL, 2.8 BLK, 60 FG%
• Ta’Niya Latson: 21.1 PTS, 1.8 STL, 43.4 FG%, 27.3 3PT% (12-for-44)
• O’Mariah Gordon: 13.7 PTS, 42.6 FG%, 39.7 3PT% (27-for-68)
• Sara Bejedi: 11.6 PTS, 1.3 STL, 37 FG%, 34.3 3PT% (24-for-70)
• Alexis Tucker: 7.4 PTS, 35.7 FG%, 31.5 3PT% (17-for-54)

Top Players: North Carolina

• Alyssa Ustby: 12.7 PTS, 9.5 REB, 2 STL, 49.4 FG%
• Deja Kelly: 14.1 PTS, 1.7 STL, 34.7 FG%, 22.4 3PT% (11-for-49)
• Maria Gakdeng: 10.6 PTS, 1.5 BLK, 67.7 FG%
• Lexi Donarski: 11.5 PTS, 38.4 FG%, 38.5 3PT% (40-for-104)
• Nivar: 7.1 PTS, 1.5 STL, 42.3 FG%, 21.2 3PT% (7-for-33)

Performance Insights: Florida State

• The Seminoles are outscoring their opponents by 14.6 points per game with a +235 scoring differential overall. They average 84.4 points per game (11th in college basketball) and allow 69.8 points per game (290th in college basketball).
• In ACC games, Florida State’s offense has been slightly less productive, posting 81.5 points per game compared to its overall average of 84.4 points per game.
• At home, the Seminoles average 86.9 points per game, while on the road, they average 78.3 points per game.
• Florida State allows 64.2 points per game at home and 72.8 points per game on the road.
• In their last 10 games, the Seminoles have averaged 82.3 points per game, slightly lower than their season average of 84.4 points per game.

Performance Insights: North Carolina

• The Tar Heels outscore their opponents by 14 points per game (scoring 70.5 points per game, ranked 113th in college basketball, and allowing 56.5 points per game, ranked 52nd in college basketball) and have a +210 scoring differential.
• North Carolina has scored more points in conference games (72.7 per game) than in their overall season games (70.5 per game) in the 2023-24 season.
• In their past 10 games, the Tar Heels have averaged 69.8 points per game, 0.7 points less than their season average of 70.5 points per game.

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